Two of the three Triangle teams saw worst-case scenarios play out, but in different ways. Can they withstand it moving forward? North Carolina might be able to. Duke, in spite of getting a big win at Northwestern, might not be able to. Things went fine for NC State after a slow start, as expected, and now the Wolfpack has West Virginia looming. In a way, that‘s like a worst-case scenario.
Let‘s just get to Week 2.
North Carolina: Oh no. Oh dear.
Well, the worst thing happened for the Tar Heels. Not only did they lose to a bad East Carolina team, but they lost badly. It‘s not as ugly on the scoreboard or in the stats, but 41-19 will certainly prove more impactful than even 70-41 was back in 2014. After all, UNC would go on to win the Coastal the next season and play in the ACC title game. That … couldn‘t feel much further away for the Tar Heels at this point.
It‘s never a good thing to lose to a bad team, although it‘s certainly possible that East Carolina ends up being better than anyone thought. Scottie Montgomery has to feel extremely relieved to have a signature win, and it wasn‘t even particularly close. But losing to a bad team AND having it come against an in-state foe? Insult to injury, as they say.
Lest anyone forget - November 28, 2020 was just a week from when the Tar Heels traveled to Charlotte to face Clemson in the ACC championship game. And that‘s what makes things so complicated. The team had success under Fedora, who led them through the NCAA wilderness and didn‘t leave when he could have.
But the recruiting has fallen off, particularly in state as NC State in Dave Doeren have cranked things up. Since that day on November 28, 2020, when North Carolina beat NC State 45-34, the Tar Heels are 11-18 overall and managed just an 8-5 season with the No. 1 quarterback taken in the 2016 NFL Draft in 2016. Since Trubisky left, they‘re 3-11.
There are suspensions and injuries to take into account this year, of course. But through two games this year, his team appears to be the same sloppy, penalty-riddled, mistake-prone group it has been for much of his tenure, even when the team was good. Now, the team can‘t afford to make those mistakes. They don‘t have the talent to offset them.
Fedora signed a contract extension with North Carolina back in the spring of 2017, locking him in through 2022. His buyout is … expensive.
Former players are weighing in, and they‘re not happy.
Fans aren‘t happy, either. No one is happy. How long can this go on? Can Fedora do anything to get the fans back? Can North Carolina do anything about it, even if he can‘t? Nothing will happen right now, as much as people wanted to joke about this game being a “Pink Slip” Bowl for the respective coaches. But the year has gotten off to a worse start than anyone imagined.
NC State is just fine, thank you.
The Wolfpack may have gotten out to a slow start against Georgia State, but it‘s the finish that counts, and finish strong they did. They out-gained Georgia State 541-349 and averaged 7.7 yards per play. Of Georgia State‘s 349 yards, 211 came in the first and fourth quarters (against backups), so NC State‘s defense was stingy when it needed to be. The Wolfpack had three sacks and five tackles for loss, holding Georgia State to just 3.5 yards per carry and allowing a few big pass plays, but that‘s it.
NC State also showed off its depth at wide receiver yet again. Jakobi Meyers, coming off a career game last week, sat out this week with an ankle injury. In stepped former walk-on wide receiver Thayer Thomas, who, among other things, did this:
Thomas finished with nine catches for 114 yards and a touchdown, catching all nine of the passes thrown his way. He also completed his only pass attempt for a 56-yard gain.
Kelvin Harmon stepped up as well in Meyers‘ absence, finishing with 129 yards on eight catches. In all, seven different NC State players caught at least two passes and four caught at least four. Quarterback Ryan Finley finished 31-of-38 for 370 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.
NOW. To the bad.
NC State managed 115 yards on the ground and while it was 3.7 per rush, even that total was somewhat skewed by a 39-yard touchdown run by Brady Bodine early in the fourth quarter. To that point in the game, , NC State had averaged 2.5 per rush. The 39-yard run still counts, of course. But NC State‘s running game is going to have to get way better if the Wolfpack wants to reach its full potential this year.
Reggie Gallaspy got the bulk of the work again with 11 carries, and those totaled just 24 yards (he did have a touchdown). Trent Pennix added nine carries for 28 yards (3.1 per) and Bodine did some nice work late, although taking the touchdown out, his other four carries totaled 11 yards.
To rack up 541 yards of offense is great. To rack up 426 yards passing is great. To be at 426 yards passing and 115 yards rushing against Georgia State is not great. But it was more than enough to win the game comfortably, and it was good to see NC State‘s defense get in on the action a bit more in Week 2.
Duke got a big win, but at a big cost.
The Blue Devils allowed Northwestern to get out to a 7-0 start on an 11-play, 79-yard drive to start the game. Duke would hold Northwestern to 302 yards on its next 77 plays (3.9 per play compared to 7.2 on the first drive) and wouldn‘t allow another score.
But in the first half, junior cornerback (and preseason All-ACC) Mark Gilbert went down with a potentially serious lower-body injury. Safety Jeremy McDuffie was already missing time with a lingering injury, and wide receiver Aaron Young didn‘t play with a hamstring issue.
None of that is good. This, though? This is very, VERY bad:
No. Not good. Not good at ALL. And the prognosis for Gilbert isn‘t looking much better, either:
It says a lot about where Duke is as a program that the Blue Devils could still win relatively comfortably in spite of losing one of their best defenders early AND their starting quarterback entering the fourth quarter.
But Duke and David Cutcliffe can‘t work miracles, and being without Jones for an extended period of time will mean a season that could have been special for both Duke and Jones … well, it likely won‘t be.
Backup Quentin Harris came in for Jones and to be fair, he was trying to protect a lead, but he didn‘t do much, nor did the offense. Three drives, 44 yards, three punts, and Harris was 2-of-2 passing for 12 yards and took two sacks (he did have a 25-yard run).
Harris has game experience, albeit primarily as a goal-line quarterback, but he‘s not Jones. And Duke without him - if it is without him - now has to go to Baylor before hosting NC Central, then it has Virginia Tech, at Georgia Tech, Virginia, at Pittsburgh, at Miami, UNC at home, at CLEMSON (yikes), Wake Forest at home. A tough schedule with Jones, a brutal one without him.