MEXICO CITY — Tropical Storm Michael could bring heavy rains and flooding to parts of Mexico, Cuba and then the U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Saturday.

Tropical Storm Michael formed Sunday afternoon and was moving toward the Gulf Coast at about 3 mph. The storm had sustained winds of 50 mph Sunday afternoon and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for the western tip of Cuba, while a tropical storm watch has been called for the resort region of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche.

WRAL meteorologist Kat Campbell said forecast models show Michael coming close to Cancun, Mexico on Monday and making landfall as a Category 2 hurricane near the Florida panhandle by Wednesday.

Campbell said the storm will interact with a front as it moves north and east, which will help the system move out to sea quickly.

WRAL meteorologist Mike Moss said the system will move across the Southeast during the latter part of the week, bringing rain to central North Carolina from Wednesday night into Friday. The region will likely see 1 to 3 inches of rain during that time, although some bands of moisture could bring heavier rains to some areas.

The opening of the State Fair on Thursday and Friday will be wet, Moss said, but after the system moves on, fairgoers will be treated to fall-like weather next weekend.