As we head into week seven of the 2018 season, it’s make or break time for Carolina football.
At 1-3 and as one of only two teams in the ACC to have fewer than three wins overall this season (Louisville has two), you might think we have already hit “break,” but a 1-1 record in ACC play means there is still opportunity for a “make.” That chance comes this Saturday, as Virginia Tech will roll into Chapel Hill to play a rare night game in Kenan Stadium.
The Hokies will take the field fresh off a home loss to Notre Dame in which Bud Foster’s defense looked tired in the second half, but playing the sixth ranked team in the country can make you look a little worn-out from time to time. What’s more concerning for Virginia Tech was giving up 632 yards and 49 points to Old Dominion just a few weeks earlier. I won’t pretend to know how much roster change occurred with the Monarchs during the off-season, but that’s an ODU team that Carolina beat 53-23 just last year.
For every Mr. Hyde, however, most teams have a Dr. Jekyll, and in the case of Virginia Tech that has been their performance in ACC play. The Hokies 55-17 this season, allowing the fewest points in the league in ACC games so far. With each team sitting at 2-0, the Miami/Virginia Tech game later this season is shaping up to potentially be for a trip to Charlotte, but Carolina can attempt to play spoiler to that starting with this Saturday’s game.
With the battle looming between the Heels and Hokies, I took a look at some previous matchups and situations in an effort to use the findings to predict the outcome of Saturday evening’s game.
Despite the fact that I know the past has no impact on the future, I still love the random facts in sports that you can use to make an argument. Clemson basketball has never won a game in Chapel Hill, hence, they will never win a game in Chapel Hill. Pitt has not beaten the Heels in football since joining the ACC, so obviously they were bound to lose to Carolina this year. Things of that nature.
So what can we irrationally rely upon to determine this Saturday night’s winner?
First, let’s see how the two teams have done against one another in the Larry Fedora era:
YearResultUNCVT 2012W48342013L17272014L17342015W30272016L3342017L759
So, since Fedora’s arrival, North Carolina is only 2-4 against the Hokies. Worse, since Justin Fuente arrived in Blacksburg, the Heels are 0-2 and have been outscored 93-10. Let’s just say history is on VT’s side on this front and look for some more positive trends.
The Heels are coming in on 16 days rest (I guess technically slightly less “rest,” depending on how you count, but on Saturday it will have been 16 days since their last game), so let’s see how they’ve done during the Fedora era on more than the typical seven days of prep time. Since over the last two decades in a previous column, we’ll ignore the first game of each season. And since we are in the middle of the regular season, we’ll also exclude bowl performances. That analysis can be done should the Heels wind up in a position to play in a bowl this season. So, regular season games with more than seven days rest:
YearDays RestResultOpponentUNC 201214L685020129W384520139WLL272320139WLW354020149L35720159WW145020159WW204820169W741201712W313420179WW3538
This trend line looks much better, especially in more recent history. Fedora and company have produced eight straight victories in games with excess preparation time. Admittedly, with three of those games against FCS opponents and two against Pitt, the competition hasn’t exactly been stiff, but better to have won them than lost them. Breaking it down a little more, Fedora is 7-1 with a nine-day rest, 1-1 with a 12-day rest, and 4-3 with a 14-day rest. My research did not return any 16-day rests in the Fedora era. Based on this historical performance, the Heels seem guaranteed to snag a win this weekend.
So the history against VT leads us to conclude the Heels are looking at a loss, and the history with extra rest indicates a victory. We need a final stat to serve as the tiebreaker.
As luck would have it, Late Night with Roy is this Friday evening, so maybe we should take a look and see how the Heels have done on that weekend during the Fedora era:
YearResultOpponentUNC 2012W14182013W10342014L34172015W13262016W13202017L2014
Carolina is 4-2 on Late Night with Roy weekend under Fedora. With two wins over Miami during that time period, we aren’t forced to caveat the record by stating it was against sub-par competition. Though it should probably be noted that the only game against Virginia Tech in this scenario was a loss. However, with two of the three historical reference points leaning in Carolina’s favor, it seems pretty obvious to me that the tea leaves are pointing toward a Tar Heel win this weekend.
And if not, the good news, as we’ve just learned, is that Late Night with Roy is Friday. Basketball season is upon us, friends! And beyond a poor record or a quarterback controversy, that simple fact is what makes this weekend make or break time for the football team.