Election 2018 Polls: A Divided Congress?

Election 2018 Polls: A Divided Congress?

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By , Christian Post Reporter | Oct 15, 2018 2:07 PM 1 / 5 Expand | Collapse (Photo: Reuters/Gary Cameron)The United States Capitol dome is seen down Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington September 30, 2013. With a deadline to avert a federal government shutdown fast approaching, the U.S. Capitol was eerily quiet on Sunday as Republicans and Democrats waited for the other side to blink first and break the impasse over funding.

On November 6, voters in the United States of America will be going to the polls to determine their local, state, and congressional leadership.

While some hope to see Republicans maintain or even expand their majorities in Congress, others are working on creating a “Blue Wave” that will eventually reverse President Donald Trump‘s policy efforts.

Recent findings from websites that analyze and compile polling data indicates an increased likelihood that the Republicans will maintain a comfortable majority in the Senate, while the odds that Democrats will take the House of Representatives are on the rise.

National Trends

Expand | Collapse (Screenshot: YouTube/C-SPAN)Donald Trump at the U.N. General Assembly in New York on September 25, 2018.

RealClearPolitics averaged a series of polls from such prominent entities as Rasmussen Reports, Gallup, Quinnipiac, and NPR/Marist, among others.

 RCP reported that President Donald Trump had a job approval rating of 43.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 53 percent.

This represents a very slight decline in support from , when RCP reported President Trump having a 43.6 percent approval rating.

, also accessed on Monday morning, RCP had the Democrats ahead with 48.6 percent, with the Republicans having 41.3 percent.

This represents an increase in support for both parties since , when Democrats had 47.4 percent, while the Republicans had 40.8 percent.

Senate

Expand | Collapse (SCREENSHOT: REALCLEARPOLITICS.COM)A Senate election prediction map by RealClearPolitics, accessed Monday, Oct. 15, 2018.<p

In their “” map, accessed Tuesday, RealClearPolitics predicted that Republicans would have 53 seats to the Democrats‘ 47.

This is an increase , when RCP predicted that the GOP would have 51 seats and the Democrats 49, as well as the week before, when the map predicted a 50-50 split.

FiveThirtyEight‘s model,  gives the Republicans a 79.8 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate, while giving the Democrats a 20.3 percent chance of gaining control.

This is a very slight change , when the model gave Republicans a 79.2 percent chance of keeping control and the Democrats a 20.8 percent chance of gaining control.

House

Expand | Collapse (SCREENSHOT: PROJECTS.FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM/)FiveThirtyEight‘s House of Representatives midterm election prediction, updated Monday, Oct. 15, 2018.

The Democrats have seen their chances of regaining control of the House of Representatives increase considerably compared to last week, according FiveThirtyEight.

 the site gave the Democrats an 81.3 percent chance of regaining control of the House, versus an 18.7 percent chance that the Republicans will retain.

This is a sharp increase in support for the Democrats compared to , when FiveThirtyEight gave them a 73.6 percent chance of regaining control of the lower house and the GOP a 26.4 percent chance to keep control.

RealClearPolitics‘ “” map, accessed Monday, gave Democrats 205 seats, Republicans 200 seats, and listed 30 as “toss-ups.”

This is a slight increase for the Republicans , when RCP had them with 198 seats, and a considerable increase compared to three weeks ago, when RCP had them with 189 seats.

Governors

Expand | Collapse (SCREENSHOT: REALCLEARPOLITICS.COM)RealClearPolitics‘ governors‘ races map, accessed Monday, Oct. 15, 2018.

RealClearPolitics has polling averages for the nation‘s gubernatorial races.  their map shows 23 Republican governors leading, 19 Democrat governors leading, and 8 toss-ups.

This remains consistent with the numbers reported by RCP last week and the week before, though with some slight variations.

Notably, Alaska and Arizona went from being in the “Leans GOP” category to the “Likely GOP” category, as both races become safer for the Republicans.

Regarding Arizona,  that while Democratic candidate David Garcia was “within striking distance” of Republican opponent Doug Ducey last month, in October, Ducey has taken a strong lead with some polls putting him with a double-digit lead.

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